Primary countries where Ebola is active. The table indicates population, reported
cases and the percent of population the reported cases represent.
Country
|
Population
|
Cases
|
% of Population
|
Guinea
|
11,750,000
|
1519
|
0.01%
|
Liberia
|
4,300,000
|
4249
|
0.10%
|
Sierra Leone
|
6,000,000
|
3410
|
0.06%
|
· I’m just trying to evaluate magnitude here. Other metrics might be used – i.e. deaths,
active cases, etc. I also recognize that
a time metric is not included.
Now… consider the US with a population of 310,000,000 (310
million). Apply the average percent of
population for the three countries noted above of 0.06% and you get –
186,000 cases
That is one hundred eighty six thousand cases. The US would have to have this many cases to
be comparable on a percentage of the population to the cases in the outbreak
countries.
Note – that is zero point zero six percent (0.06%). It is not six percent (6%).
I’ll let you apply that 0.06% percent to a few other populations:
India: 1.25 billion
China: 1.357 billion
Russia: 143 million
Indonesia: 240 million
Travel to the US:
The annual number of visitors from other
countries to the US.
Visitors to US – top 15 countries. (2013
statistics - http://travel.trade.gov/view/m-2013-I-001/index.html)
CANADA
|
23,387,275
|
MEXICO
|
14,342,722
|
UNITED KINGDOM
|
3,835,308
|
JAPAN
|
3,730,287
|
BRAZIL
|
2,060,291
|
GERMANY
|
1,916,471
|
CHINA (EXCL HK)
|
1,806,553
|
FRANCE
|
1,504,654
|
KOREA, SOUTH
|
1,359,924
|
AUSTRALIA
|
1,205,060
|
INDIA
|
859,156
|
ITALY
|
838,883
|
VENEZUELA
|
788,069
|
COLOMBIA
|
748,116
|
ARGENTINA
|
686,098
|
Note: A large number
of Canada and Mexico visitors enter the country by land. Most of the other countries a large
percentage of the visitors travel by air.
What is the threshold for cutting off travel from a
particular country? I honestly don’t
know.
